Interviews tell you if a problem is real. Smoke tests tell you whether people will act on it. The gold standard is money changing hands before the product exists.
The validation ladder
From weakest to strongest:
- Likes and comments. Nearly worthless.
- Email or WhatsApp sign-ups. Mild interest.
- Time commitments. Joining a demo, filling a long form, a 30-minute call.
- Introductions. “Talk to my friend, she has this problem too.”
- Letters of intent (for B2B). A written statement that they plan to buy.
- Deposits and pre-orders. Real money.
- Paid pilots. A customer pays to try it.
Aim to climb as high as you can before writing serious code.
Five smoke tests you can run this week
- Landing page + ads. Describe the outcome, add a “Get early access” or “Pre-order” button, and spend a few thousand rupees on targeted ads. Measure conversion.
- WhatsApp catalogue. For physical products, list items on WhatsApp Business and see who orders.
- Concierge MVP. Deliver the service manually. Zepto’s founders first tested grocery delivery through kirana partnerships before building dark stores.
- Pre-sale. Offer a discount for paying now and delivering later. Crowdfunding platforms work for consumer products.
- Pilot. For B2B, offer a 30-day paid pilot at a reduced price.
Measure the right numbers
- Visit → sign-up conversion. For a cold audience, a few per cent is a reasonable early signal. Track your own baseline.
- Sign-up → payment conversion. The real test.
- Cost per sign-up. Your earliest estimate of customer acquisition cost (Level 3).
Be ethical
If you take money before the product exists, be clear about delivery timelines and offer full refunds. Trust is your most valuable early asset.
Your takeaway
Spend a week and a few thousand rupees to learn what would otherwise take six months and lakhs of rupees. When strangers pay you, move to Level 3 and make sure the money works.